NEWS

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June 21, 2006

Polling for '08

CNN has just released a poll evaluating potential 2008 presidential candidates, and the results are pretty interesting. The candidates include Clinton, John Kerry, Al Gore, John McCain, Jeb Bush, and Rudy Giuliani, and respondents were asked to choose among the options definitely vote for, would consider voting for, and definitely not vote for.A few quick observations: Jeb Bush is not taken seriously as a candidate. Neither is Al Gore, but this may change if he continues to gain both popularity and respect for the global warning stuff. Not many people are on the fence about Hillary Clinton; almost half the country would definitely not vote for her, but she led the field in the category of "would definitely vote".My problem with the poll: Was the question about the primaries or the general election? The article doesn't specify, but because the candidates weren't all getting slightly under 50% for the "definitely vote for" category, it seems people were thinking primaries. My sense is that if you asked voters if they would vote for Al Gore vs. a Republican in the general election, he would get just less than 50%, indicated all Democrats would vote for a Democrat, period. The same would probably go for Republican voters. Without specifying, however, the results may be skewed.